Although not directly pertaining to ethanol, this post pertains to a recent study by the EIA. But, then again, what doesn't pertain to ethanol these days in one way or another. The EIA (Energy Information Administration), which are the same guys that come around every two weeks to tell us how much gasoline and diesel the US has so that prices can swing up or down, completed an up-to-date study using computer modeling to plot the maximum amount of oil that could potentially be recovered by drilling in ANWR (the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge). Their findings show that the oil production would peak in the year 2027 and would peak at roughly 780,000 barrels of oil per day. Although this is just a computer estimate, the EIA knows what they are talking about and 780,000 barrels per day is not a lot of oil. To put it into perspective, the EIA predicts that 780,000 bpd would lower the price of a barrel of oil by $0.75. That is 75 cents off of a $135 barrel of oil! And for even more perspective, Saudi Arabia agreed to increase their oil output by 300,000 barrels per day after President Bush's latest visit to the region and that hardly decreased the price of oil.
My point is that I firmly believe that if we needed to we could drill in the ANWR without harming any of the habitats or animals. I think a better argument against drilling there is that it probably won't affect our situation greatly and would be depleting a resource that, if anything, the United States should try to retain in terms of domestic proved oil reserves. Just my two cents on a pretty complex and contentious issue.
For more on the original study:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anwr/pdf/sroiaf(2008)03.pdf
Friday, May 23, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Chemically Derived Transport Fuels
With oil and gas prices rising even higher today there is no doubt that synthetic fuels are begged for if not required. This, of course, includes biofuels because if you think about it, all fuels are 'biofuels' the only difference is whether or not they are renewable or sustainable. Interesting news in the past week indicates even more work has accomplished positive results in the field of chemically derived transportation fuels. Researchers at the Biofuels Center of North Carolina have indicated that their 'centia' process allows the conversion of any lipid-like material (fats) to be converted into the three most sought after transport fuels, (jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel). This technology, while new, is not the first to be able to accomplish this feat. However, it is encouraging since they are able to take a relatively abundant resource (fats) and convert them into a 'drop-in' substitute for the fuels listed above.
Before jumping for joy in the hopes that this is a solution to our energy problems in the near term, here are a few things to pour cold water over your head. First off, even though they were able to prove that the process works, the next step is to generate these fuels on "a few gallon level." (Their words). A few gallons is hardly enough to make a splash in today's society. Also, the process requires high-heat and it remains to be seen whether this process is environmentally or commercially competitive, even at these high prices. The bottom line is that it is a start and it is refreshing to see that several different avenues to the same goal are being investigated. For what it is worth, I believe strongly in biological catalysts holding the key to converting renewables into gasoline substitutes. This is because even though chemical catalysts are easier to produce and mold to the researcher's exact specifications, they tend to cost much more and foul much more easily than a biological method.
If you want to read more about the process, here is a link:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/ncsu-to-demonst.html#more
Before jumping for joy in the hopes that this is a solution to our energy problems in the near term, here are a few things to pour cold water over your head. First off, even though they were able to prove that the process works, the next step is to generate these fuels on "a few gallon level." (Their words). A few gallons is hardly enough to make a splash in today's society. Also, the process requires high-heat and it remains to be seen whether this process is environmentally or commercially competitive, even at these high prices. The bottom line is that it is a start and it is refreshing to see that several different avenues to the same goal are being investigated. For what it is worth, I believe strongly in biological catalysts holding the key to converting renewables into gasoline substitutes. This is because even though chemical catalysts are easier to produce and mold to the researcher's exact specifications, they tend to cost much more and foul much more easily than a biological method.
If you want to read more about the process, here is a link:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/ncsu-to-demonst.html#more
Monday, May 19, 2008
Secretary of Ag lifts vail from Anti-Ethanol Movement
The US Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer gave his two cents today about the recent backlash against corn-based ethanol. The secretary released evidence of a concerted effort by food-manufacturers to discredit ethanol in the arena of public opinion and to lobby Congress to repeal to recently passed ethanol mandate. Schafer released documents outlining how the Grocery Manufacturers Association, which governs such food giants as Coca-Cola and General Mills, hired a public relations firm to work behind the scenes to increase public perception that ethanol is a bad product in terms of food.
This by itself is disturbing but not wrong given that special interest groups lobby Congress for all sorts of reasons, including groups linked to ethanol. The problem is when these groups use false or misleading data to try and sway public opinion. Scott Openshaw was interviewed for the original story in the Des Moines Register. Openshaw is a representative for the Grocery Manufacturers and admitted that even though food price increases aren't wholly related to ethanol, it is the only part of the equation that Congress can do anything about.
This is a problem because they are using unfounded facts to scare the public into believing that corn can only go to EITHER food or fuel and not both. Interestingly, Edward Lazear, the White House's chief economic adviser told a Senate committee last week that even though world food prices have increased 43% in one year, the increase in cost due to ethanol only accounts for 3%. Given all of ethanol's other benefits, including keeping more American dollars here in the US and improving the income generated for the farm economy, I would say that special interest groups such as the Grocery Manufacturers Association and other groups that would remain in the dark to sway public opinion should be exposed for the liars that they are.
I'm just glad that we are finally starting to see public officials point out that the recent move against ethanol isn't coincidence at all.
For the original DM Register article, follow the link below:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080519/BUSINESS/80519031
This by itself is disturbing but not wrong given that special interest groups lobby Congress for all sorts of reasons, including groups linked to ethanol. The problem is when these groups use false or misleading data to try and sway public opinion. Scott Openshaw was interviewed for the original story in the Des Moines Register. Openshaw is a representative for the Grocery Manufacturers and admitted that even though food price increases aren't wholly related to ethanol, it is the only part of the equation that Congress can do anything about.
This is a problem because they are using unfounded facts to scare the public into believing that corn can only go to EITHER food or fuel and not both. Interestingly, Edward Lazear, the White House's chief economic adviser told a Senate committee last week that even though world food prices have increased 43% in one year, the increase in cost due to ethanol only accounts for 3%. Given all of ethanol's other benefits, including keeping more American dollars here in the US and improving the income generated for the farm economy, I would say that special interest groups such as the Grocery Manufacturers Association and other groups that would remain in the dark to sway public opinion should be exposed for the liars that they are.
I'm just glad that we are finally starting to see public officials point out that the recent move against ethanol isn't coincidence at all.
For the original DM Register article, follow the link below:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080519/BUSINESS/80519031
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Numbers Behind Price Calculator
Here is a quick but thorough explanation on how I built the ethanol price calculator. The best way to debate the ethanol issue is to be as transparent as possible about what numbers people are using and where they came from, because they can alter the final product and lead to the wide variations and inaccurate reporting that we often see.
To calculate how much less ethanol blends should be, we must consider the energy density. This is the amount of energy in the fuel molecules that can be converted into mechanical energy for the car.
Energy density of Ethanol = 24.8MJ/L
Energy density of Gasoline = 34.3MJ/L
This comes out to approximately 28% decrease in energy for ethanol over gasoline. Once this value is known, then the next step is to figure out how much blend is going into the tank. For example, if only 10% of the fuel is ethanol, then only 10% is susceptible to the 28% decrease. In other words, 10% of 28 is 2.8%, which is the amount of mileage decrease you would see in a car filled with E10. The same goes for E85 blends, where you would take 85% times 28 and find that the decrease is 23.8% over filling your tank with 100% gasoline. I then took these values and multiplied the original price of regular unleaded by these percentages to find the amount of money to subtract off the original price of gasoline to get the amount that the ethanol blend should be sold for.
Here's an example:
-If regular unleaded costs $3.70 per gallon and you want to fill up with 10% ethanol, you would:
1) Take 28% times 10% to find that the decrease in mileage is 2.8% per gallon.
2) 2.8% times $3.70 per gallon gives us .1036. (So 10.36 cents per gallon should be taken off the original price).
3) Finally, subtract $3.70 by 10.36 cents to get $3.59 per gallon should be the price of E10.
I hope this helps those to figure out on their own whether ethanol blends are worth their money. If they are not, please write to the gas station owners or your local legislature to make sure that we aren't being taken advantage of by blenders who want to earn more money by decreasing the margin between regular gasoline and ethanol blends.
To calculate how much less ethanol blends should be, we must consider the energy density. This is the amount of energy in the fuel molecules that can be converted into mechanical energy for the car.
Energy density of Ethanol = 24.8MJ/L
Energy density of Gasoline = 34.3MJ/L
This comes out to approximately 28% decrease in energy for ethanol over gasoline. Once this value is known, then the next step is to figure out how much blend is going into the tank. For example, if only 10% of the fuel is ethanol, then only 10% is susceptible to the 28% decrease. In other words, 10% of 28 is 2.8%, which is the amount of mileage decrease you would see in a car filled with E10. The same goes for E85 blends, where you would take 85% times 28 and find that the decrease is 23.8% over filling your tank with 100% gasoline. I then took these values and multiplied the original price of regular unleaded by these percentages to find the amount of money to subtract off the original price of gasoline to get the amount that the ethanol blend should be sold for.
Here's an example:
-If regular unleaded costs $3.70 per gallon and you want to fill up with 10% ethanol, you would:
1) Take 28% times 10% to find that the decrease in mileage is 2.8% per gallon.
2) 2.8% times $3.70 per gallon gives us .1036. (So 10.36 cents per gallon should be taken off the original price).
3) Finally, subtract $3.70 by 10.36 cents to get $3.59 per gallon should be the price of E10.
I hope this helps those to figure out on their own whether ethanol blends are worth their money. If they are not, please write to the gas station owners or your local legislature to make sure that we aren't being taken advantage of by blenders who want to earn more money by decreasing the margin between regular gasoline and ethanol blends.
Ethanol Price Calculator
After an exciting and illuminating conversation I had this Mother's Day, I figured that along with my blog posts I should try to keep people informed about ethanol's pricing. One thing I've noticed in the past few weeks as gasoline prices rise is that the margin between regular unleaded gasoline and E10 super unleaded has remained the same. While in this part of Iowa, the price differences are usually 10 to 13 cents per gallon cheaper for the ethanol blend; making them cheaper to buy than regular gasoline, it may not be the case in other parts of the country. I wholeheartedly feel that during this "growing-pains" period in corn-based ethanol production the worst thing that those involved with ethanol can do would be to make ethanol blends less affordable based on energy density (which controls the number of miles you can travel on a gallon of the fuel blend). For this reason, I have installed a quick price calculator to the right of the blog posts. Simply enter the unleaded regular price of gasoline at the station near you and it will tell you the price of E10 and E85 that you would pay above which you are being charged too much. In my next post I will go over how I made these calculations.
A final note is that several studies from the University of Minnesota and South Dakota State University made preliminary findings that point out the possibility that ethanol might not cause the full dip in mileage that would be dictated by its lower energy density. If you want to read my blog post on this, copy and paste the following link:
http://ethanolfactfictionreality.blogspot.com/2008/03/e20-blends.html
However, this is a debate that is still ongoing and so I didn't include any of their findings that might alter the mpg, as you will see in my next post on how prices for E10 and E85 were calculated.
A final note is that several studies from the University of Minnesota and South Dakota State University made preliminary findings that point out the possibility that ethanol might not cause the full dip in mileage that would be dictated by its lower energy density. If you want to read my blog post on this, copy and paste the following link:
http://ethanolfactfictionreality.blogspot.com/2008/03/e20-blends.html
However, this is a debate that is still ongoing and so I didn't include any of their findings that might alter the mpg, as you will see in my next post on how prices for E10 and E85 were calculated.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Swift Enterprises
Wow, it has been a while since I felt comfortable writing in this blog. With exams to get through and work to keep up with, it has been a busy few weeks but, I'm back and hopefully can continue to write about things of interest. During my absence, there has been more than enough debate and all too often blatant criticism of biofuels and ethanol in particular. Rather than dwell on these arguments that, I fear, rely too often on raw emotion then on any kind of intellectual debate, I think it is time to look forward for a story to move beyond this impass.
With crude oil prices ridiculously high, I have heard more than one oil analyst state that it is not speculation that is driving the market, but rather the market is working correctly to force new innovations in the United States. While I doubt this is fully the case and I question the morality of crippling people's lives just to move us beyond fossil fuels more quickly, I know for a fact that $125 per barrel oil is having an effect on research. Everyone is looking for a solution that moves beyond corn as a primary feedstock and a solution that will produce higher energy (so called 'next generation') fuels that act more like gasoline.
Swift Enterprises, in conjunction with engineers at Purdue University, has announced that they have developed a method to generate the high octane (100 octane rated) diesel fuel that propeller planes use. They go on to assert that their method can use any biomass feedstock so they are not limited to corn and they say their method costs as little as $1 per gallon to make. While this is a great announcement and couldn't come sooner for an airline industry that is going into debt daily because of high fuel prices, there may be some problems. The first is that the method doesn't produce jet fuel used in commercial airlines. The second is that synthetic processes to make such things as car gasoline are already known. The problem with these processes is that they use chemical catalysts (which are materials that cause a chemical reaction to occur). These catalysts are often "poisoned" by contaminants in the biomass material, such as other metals or other organic materials. Because of this, even though the process is possible, it is not available on a large scale because it is simply too difficult to replace the expensive catalysts every time.
Although Swift isn't releasing much information yet for patent concerns, it looks like they've taken a bold first step. Hopefully they can continue to develop their method to gain more efficiency and reliability. If so, I guarantee we hear more about this company in the future.
For more information on Swift Enterprises:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/swift-enterpris.html#more
With crude oil prices ridiculously high, I have heard more than one oil analyst state that it is not speculation that is driving the market, but rather the market is working correctly to force new innovations in the United States. While I doubt this is fully the case and I question the morality of crippling people's lives just to move us beyond fossil fuels more quickly, I know for a fact that $125 per barrel oil is having an effect on research. Everyone is looking for a solution that moves beyond corn as a primary feedstock and a solution that will produce higher energy (so called 'next generation') fuels that act more like gasoline.
Swift Enterprises, in conjunction with engineers at Purdue University, has announced that they have developed a method to generate the high octane (100 octane rated) diesel fuel that propeller planes use. They go on to assert that their method can use any biomass feedstock so they are not limited to corn and they say their method costs as little as $1 per gallon to make. While this is a great announcement and couldn't come sooner for an airline industry that is going into debt daily because of high fuel prices, there may be some problems. The first is that the method doesn't produce jet fuel used in commercial airlines. The second is that synthetic processes to make such things as car gasoline are already known. The problem with these processes is that they use chemical catalysts (which are materials that cause a chemical reaction to occur). These catalysts are often "poisoned" by contaminants in the biomass material, such as other metals or other organic materials. Because of this, even though the process is possible, it is not available on a large scale because it is simply too difficult to replace the expensive catalysts every time.
Although Swift isn't releasing much information yet for patent concerns, it looks like they've taken a bold first step. Hopefully they can continue to develop their method to gain more efficiency and reliability. If so, I guarantee we hear more about this company in the future.
For more information on Swift Enterprises:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/swift-enterpris.html#more
Friday, April 25, 2008
Farm Bill and Ethanol Subsidies
Just a quick note to update on the Farm Bill. The Des Moines Register is reporting that there has been substantial progress in the Federal Farm Bill because of compromises coming from both sides of the issues. The latest word is that the ethanol subsidies in the form of the blenders tax credit will be reduced from 51cents per gallon to 45 cent. The money saved will be diverted into a fund to encourage cellulosic ethanol production.
Although I don't think that it would be healthy to the United States to damage the extensive investment in the ethanol industry by totally throwing out the blenders credit, this is a very good step if it becomes law in the farm bill. The blenders tax credit mainly benefits the blenders who are rarely ethanol producers. It works well because it encourages blenders to use ethanol over gasoline, but reducing it by 6 cents per gallon probably won't diminish ethanol blending. Also, the government is taking the right steps in adjusting towards the future of ethanol, which is cellulosic.
Finally, I think it will be interesting to watch the outcome if this reduction in the blenders credit becomes law. The Bush administration has hinted at their willingness in recent months to lower the import tariff on ethanol designed to prevent overseas ethanol producers such as Brazil from enjoying the taxpayer funded subsidies such as the blenders credit. However, if the blenders credit is reduced, these tariffs could be reduced from the 53 cents per gallon currently seen to say, 48 cents per gallon. This would make Brazillian ethanol more attractive towards importing without seriously harming the domestic production and would possible take the pressure off the corn crop in the short term.
For more details or updates, check out the Des Moines Register at:
www.desmoinesregister.com
Although I don't think that it would be healthy to the United States to damage the extensive investment in the ethanol industry by totally throwing out the blenders credit, this is a very good step if it becomes law in the farm bill. The blenders tax credit mainly benefits the blenders who are rarely ethanol producers. It works well because it encourages blenders to use ethanol over gasoline, but reducing it by 6 cents per gallon probably won't diminish ethanol blending. Also, the government is taking the right steps in adjusting towards the future of ethanol, which is cellulosic.
Finally, I think it will be interesting to watch the outcome if this reduction in the blenders credit becomes law. The Bush administration has hinted at their willingness in recent months to lower the import tariff on ethanol designed to prevent overseas ethanol producers such as Brazil from enjoying the taxpayer funded subsidies such as the blenders credit. However, if the blenders credit is reduced, these tariffs could be reduced from the 53 cents per gallon currently seen to say, 48 cents per gallon. This would make Brazillian ethanol more attractive towards importing without seriously harming the domestic production and would possible take the pressure off the corn crop in the short term.
For more details or updates, check out the Des Moines Register at:
www.desmoinesregister.com
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